航空愿景2050：迈向气候中和增长的潜力研究报告（英文版）.pdf

航空愿景2050：迈向气候中和增长的潜力研究报告（英文版）。Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, with effects extending beyond carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to include short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as nitrogen oxides, black carbon, and contrail cirrus. In 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organization agreed to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, but the industry is not on track to deliver the scale of fuel efficiency improvements, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) uptake, and zero-emission aircraft development required to meet that goal. Recent advances in the scientific understanding of SLCPs have attracted attention to the potential rapid reductions in aviation-attributable warming through contrail mitigation. But no deep decarbonization roadmaps for aviation have been updated to reflect SLCP controls.

This report updates the ICCT’s Vision 2050 decarbonization roadmap for the aviation sector by quantifying how SLCP mitigation can complement greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies to align aviation with the Paris Agreement. Using a high-fidelity 2023 flight emission inventory (JETSTREAM), an emission projection model (PACE 2.0), and a simplified climate model (FaIR), the report estimates aviation’s warming potential through 2050 across five scenarios that span the full range of GHG and SLCP control: Historical Trends, Current Commitments, GHG Forward, SLCP Forward, and Full Breakthrough.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, commits countries to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This report compares aviation’s warming contributions to the remaining 1.7 °C warming budget, reflecting recent findings that global warming is likely to surpass the 1.5 °C threshold before 2030.