北美保险业报告：2025年第一季度保险业展望——在不确定性中前行.pdf

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时间：2025/04/15
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北美保险业报告：2025年第一季度保险业展望——在不确定性中前行。Heading into 1Q25 earnings, we see a more favorable setup for the P&C insurance industry as underlying fundamentals should be resilient and concerns around prior year development related to court verdict and settlement inflation should calm down. We are particularly optimistic on commercial underwriters operating at the smaller end of the market, with HIG and TRV as our two top Overweights. On the other hand, life insurers face a more challenging setup, with a wave of estimate revisions likely looming for the group. While the stocks have drawn down and the average P/E multiple is just 44% of the S&P 500 multiple, in periods of greater credit concerns like 2022 the group has traded down closer to 35% of the S&P 500 multiple. Given the wide range of outcomes and somewhat binary nature of it, we are more selective in life insurance this quarter and favor group benefits, strong excess capital positions, manageable credit stress outcomes, and cheap cash flows leading us to favored Overweights UNM and JXN.